Syria<\/h2>\n

Following the Iraq and Afghanistan disasters and subsequent social catastrophes, the US giant is effectively politically paralysed, prevented from unleashing its full military power now in Syria. The mood of opposition of the American people \u2013 foremost the working class \u2013 to any proposals for large-scale military operations in the Middle East or elsewhere is clear. It can conduct military-police type operations \u2013 including aerial bombing \u2013 in concert with its allies but cannot extend this to significant forces, \u2018boots on the ground\u2019. The four-year long civil war has resulted in 11 million people out of 26 million being driven from their homes and at least 250,000 losing their lives. The original uprising was fuelled by hunger, in turn the product of climate change. Drought took hold in the largely Sunni dominated countryside and an influx of impoverished farmers into the cities laid the basis for the uprising against the Assad regime, which rested mainly on the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of the Shias. Imperialism \u2013 and not a few on the left as well \u2013 believed that this movement, embracing the majority of Sunnis, would quickly overwhelm the regime. However, the CWI, together with a few farsighted bourgeois commentators, did not believe that Assad would be quickly overthrown. Assad did not just rest on the Alawite-Shia population of Syria but on other minorities as well, such as the Christians and the Druze, who later felt mortally threatened by the brutal, murderous torturers of ISIS. Moreover, the conflict assumed an increasingly sectarian form, with a major element of a proxy war between Shia Iran and the Sunni Saudi Arabian regime. The latter, with its billions of petrol dollars, was prepared to fund almost indefinitely an uprising against the hated Assad regime. This, they hoped, would once and for all remove the Shia-aligned regime from the face of the Middle East, in the process curbing Iran\u2019s regional ambitions that had been boosted by the Iraq war, which saw a Shia regime emerge linked to Iran. However, they and the \u2018farsighted\u2019 Obama and Cameron had not reckoned with the reaction of the hundred million Shias in the region: in Syria itself, in Iraq, in some of the Gulf States and in Iran with nearly 70 million Shias alone. Iran and its Lebanese co-religionists Hezbollah supplied the foreign fighters necessary to bolster the Assad regime, alongside Pakistani and other Shias from the Gulf States. This proved necessary at critical moments when Assad faced formidable opposition forces \u2013 bolstered by sectarian jihadis \u2013 that appeared to be about to overthrow his regime. As the war\u2019s toll of the dead and injured rose so did the increasing difficulties of conscripting young people into the government forces. This was aggravated by the low pay for those enlisted in the Syrian army, contrasting with the lush living of the elite who did not dirty their hands with much fighting. Isis and the other reactionary anti-Assad forces suffered no such economic difficulties. Those who joined its ranks from other countries in the region received handsome remuneration through much higher wages than the impoverished conditions \u2018at home\u2019, with access to the latest technological goods too. It was these factors which determined the intractable character of the conflict. Assad as well as Isis and other anti- Assad forces were too strong to be beaten but were also too-weak to defeat each other! However, recently, it appeared that the regime faced a looming \u2018catastrophe\u2019, admitted Assad, with the increased strengthening of opposition forces by the US, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States in particular. This changed everything particularly for Putin\u2019s Russian regime, which had inherited from Stalinism military and financial ties with the Syrian regime. The implications of his possible overthrow forced the Iranians to intervene and urge Russia to seek to militarily underpin his regime. Russia\u2019s commitment to increased air cover for the regime, backed up by the possible use of 2,000 troops, against Isis, completely changed the situation. Obama \u2013 with his own air campaign not working \u2013 was completely wrong-footed, as was the hapless Cameron. Putin intervened not out of any deep-seated sympathy or loyalty to the Syrian people but for its own imperialist interests. Faced with increased hostility from the \u2018developed\u2019 world \u2013 US and Europe \u2013 over the war in Ukraine \u2013 he took the opportunity to enhance the power and prestige of Russia in the region. History shows, the present conflict attesting to this, that wars cannot be successfully fought just from the air with intense bombardment. The US and France, restricted to air attacks alone, and without any reliable ground forces \u2013 apart from the Kurdish forces in the north \u2013 are incapable of defeating Isis. Russia can rely on ground forces \u2013 those of the Syrian regime itself \u2013 to coordinate attacks on Isis. This forced a switch in tactics by the US and Britain who have indicated that they will possibly \u2018coordinate\u2019 attacks with Russia, and therefore with Assad himself. They have invoked once more the example of Roosevelt joining with Stalin to defeat Hitler. At the same time, they have repeated that any political settlement cannot include Assad! The aim is for some kind of political deal along the lines of the Dayton Accords following the Balkan war which brought the different warring powers together including President Milosevic, representative of the Serbs. However, he ended up being found guilty in The Hague for \u2018war crimes\u2019. Assad is unlikely to agree to voluntary suicide, which is what such a deal means for him and his regime. It is not clear whether others like Russia and particularly Iran will also go along with this. However, the interests of Assad let alone the fate of the Syrian people, is so much small change to the outside powers who have one concern on how to enhance their own power, prestige and income. It is true that this war, with comparisons drawn with Europe\u2019s ruinous mediaeval Thirty Years War, has produced a yearning for peace in the region and elsewhere. Its effects, as the CWI anticipated, have radiated out to all the neighbouring countries and beyond, ratcheting up sectarian, national and religious conflicts, not to say murderous terrorism, the fleeing of millions to Europe to what they imagine will be a \u2018safe haven\u2019, dividing and destabilising in the process whole societies. Even the Pope has described it as a new version of a \u2018Third World War\u2019, particularly for the Middle East. There is no possibility of a real world war breaking out from the present conflagration for the reasons \u2013 particularly \u2018mutually assured destruction\u2019 (MAD) \u2013 that have been analysed previously by the CWI. The YPG\/YPJ, the military units linked to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) associated with the PKK, has been one of the most effective forces in deterring ISIS. This is linked to their programme containing some radical elements \u2013 in terms of women and Kurdish national rights in particular \u2013 that has appealed to important sections of the Kurds, as well as to a layer of youth internationally. Yet the PYD has not been able to secure active popular support outside of the Kurdish majority areas. Securing people\u2019s support and reaching out to working class and poor communities beyond Rojava is a vital task to break the area\u2019s isolation. But this task is undermined by the PYD leaders\u2019 policy of balancing between and seeking deals with the rival powers active in the region \u2013 forces that put entire communities under bombing and persecution \u2013 especially the Arab Sunnis, whose sense of victimisation in both Iraq and Syria has been instrumental in ISIS securing a social base. Socialists recognise some of the gains which have been achieved in Rojava, but insist on the need for a mass and democratically organised struggle armed with a principled programme based on the unity of working people and the poor, on the uncompromising defence of the rights of all minorities and internationalism. <\/p>\n

Terrorism and Isis<\/h2>\n

The indiscriminate, murderous, terrorist Paris bombing seems to represent a new stage in the tactics of Isis, following the downing of a Russian airliner over Sinai and the bombs in Baghdad, Ankara and Beirut. Needless to say, as our French comrades made clear, we unreservedly condemn these fascistic-type attacks which target the innocent. Just eight terrorists were able to inflict so much death in Paris. It may have been a lot worse if they had got into the French German football match which Fran\u00e7ois Hollande, the French president, was attending. There is naturally mass outrage at this atrocity but the bourgeois media have attempted to drown out those voices that try to explain how and why this terrorist wave has developed. As terrible as the Paris killings were \u2013 particularly to the families who are affected \u2013 and the mass fear which it generated, the total number who died is equivalent to the numbers killed and maimed each day in Syria. This does not in any way underestimate the fear effect in France, first and foremost on the working class. But as even bourgeois commentators have sought to explain, this represents \u2018blowback\u2019, a phrase originally coined by the CIA in relation to the conflict in Afghanistan and its effects on the whole of the world. The Iraq war, Afghanistan, Libya and not least the murderous conflict in Syria itself have reinforced the conclusions of the CIA! Isis (referred to as \u2018Daesh\u2019 by many in the Middle East), at least its original cadre, was drawn primarily from the officer ranks of the predominantly Sunni Iraq army who had been sacked and excluded by the purge which followed the overthrow of Saddam and the occupation which followed. Until recently, its strategy seemed to be concentrated in the immediate region of Syria, Iraq etc., in seeking to create a \u2018caliphate\u2019. It rejected Al Qa\u2019ida\u2019s approach of spectacular global terrorist attacks, like those of the World Trade Center. From the outset, it appeared to be quite different from previous attempts at Arab resistance. It proclaimed the need to capture territory in order to establish a state \u2013 an Islamic \u2018caliphate\u2019 \u2013 with all the ramifications that this implies, including the establishment of sophisticated financial arrangements. It helped to sustain itself through the trade in captured ancient artefacts as well as oil arising from the seizure of Mosul with its considerable oil producing facilities and resources. It has even traded with the Assad regime itself. Therefore Cameron\u2019s bluster that Isis should \u201cnot be dignified with the name Islamic state\u201d is completely bogus. As Patrick Cockburn has commented: \u201cUnfortunately it is a real state and one which is more powerful than half the members of the UN, with an experienced army, conscription, taxation and control of all aspects of life within the vast area it rules.\u201d It will therefore not be easily eradicated. But it has been pushed back in the past months, giving up territory under pressure from Kurdish forces. Its leaders seems to have concluded that the best means of deterring effective intervention from outside powers is now to take the \u2018war\u2019 to the enemy, through sustained terroristic actions along the lines of Paris. It cannot be excluded, in fact it is likely, that similar attacks will be launched in other European cities and wider afield. Isis has found ready recruits from amongst the North African and Middle Eastern diaspora of discriminated against and alienated Muslims in Europe. Moreover, an appeal is now being made to the wider \u2018Muslim world\u2019, with a noticeable rise in interest and hardening of support for Isis in Africa, in Asia \u2013 it is growing in Bangladesh, for instance \u2013 in Malaysia and elsewhere. On the other hand, seamless progress for Isis is not inevitable. The bourgeois, for its own reasons, can take effective action against it in the neo-colonial world. In Pakistan, for instance, the army, which plays a balancing bonapartist role, appears to the masses as the only cohesive force in society. It also has considerable economic stakes in the economy and has combined repression of the Taliban and the incipient Isis threat with economic reforms which benefit a layer of the masses and is paid for by Chinese largesse. It remains to be seen whether some kind of ramshackle military coalition could be put together to push back Isis from its existing present shaky stronghold. The intervention of Russia, supported by the Syrian regime, has introduced a new crucial factor in the war. Isis still maintains elements of a guerrilla-type force. However, to be successful, such forces cannot rule by repression and terror alone or by taking on every power. Ultimately, only a sympathetic and supportive population \u2013 \u2018the sea in which the guerrilla fishes swim\u2019 \u2013 can sustain its grip for any length of time. Isis\u2019s methods \u2013 its religious death cult, the propagation of a Hobbesian hell of \u2018each against all\u2019 \u2013 will over time alienate the population under its control as well the disastrous economic effects of terrorism. Witness the catastrophic fallout for the masses from the Isis-inspired attack on the tourist town of Sousse in Tunisia in 2015. It is now a ghost town, shunned by visitors and tourists, which will inevitably lead to mass unemployment. The terrorist attack in Luxor in Egypt in 1997 had a similar disastrous effect on the economy. <\/p>\n

War in Yemen and Saudi Arabia<\/h2>\n

The other bloody conflict in the Middle East, next to the Syria\/Iraq nightmare, is the civil war in Yemen. Seven months of air strikes, together with the intervention of ground forces by the Saudi-led coalition, has heaped even more terrible suffering on what is already the poorest population in the region. Over 5,000 Yemenis have been killed, including at least 2,400 civilians. The coalition is fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis, which seized Sana\u2019a, the capital, and other areas last year. Yemen, with a population of 23 million people, was the poorest country in the Arab world long before the removal of President Saleh following an uprising against him in 2011. The Saudis, the richest country in the region, supported by the Gulf sheiks and American imperialism, have imposed a vicious blockade of ports and other outlets, resulting in the prospect of famine, with 13 million people already defined as \u2018food insecure\u2019. The Houthis are located in the Yemeni highlands and are allied to Saleh against the Saudi coalition, resulting in stalemate between the two sides. The Saudi regime is acting more and more openly as a counter-revolutionary gendarmerie in a conflict which also has all the hallmarks of a proxy war against Iran, with the poor Yemenis facing the prospect of further bombing and starvation with no solution in sight. However, the rotten Saudi regime is paying a price for its costly interventions in regional conflicts and in seeking to maintain its leading position in the oil trade. Its decision to keep on pumping oil in order to protect its global market share is in danger of rebounding on the regime in the next period. In an upcoming meeting in Vienna of Opec, it has been indicated that it is likely to shift its position. Last year, they rocked the oil market by abandoning the traditional position of reducing supplies in order to stabilise prices. Since then, oil prices have collapsed from a $115 to below $50 a barrel with billions of dollars of investment in oil production elsewhere being put on hold. But the other side of declining oil revenues have rebounded on Saudi Arabia, which now has a budget deficit of at least 20% of GDP. This has led the government to dip into its huge reserves, which has had an effect on investment in infrastructure and squeezed government spending. This in turn sparked a private sector slow down, cuts in subsidies and the general squeezing of living standards. Taken together with the disaster of hundreds killed at the annual Hajj pilgrimage, this has resulted in unprecedented criticism of the corrupt Saudi regime. Letters in Arabic have circulated calling for the overthrow of the King and have been welcomed by wide layers of Saudis, having been read by 2 million people. This represents the wind famously \u2018blowing the tops of the trees first\u2019. Increased repression by the regime is probably a symptom of growing opposition. The removal of the more corrupt layers in the \u2018kingdom\u2019 could open the floodgates to unprecedented demonstrations, which can have a significant impact not just in Saudi Arabia but throughout the region. <\/p>\n

Iran<\/h2>\n

A new situation has opened in Iran as Obama has moved to negotiations and proposed the lifting of sanctions, although this has still to be ratified in the US Congress where it will meet opposition from hard-line Republicans. At the same time, Iran itself has intervened to back Shia forces in various conflicts in the Middle East, sometimes in opposition to the forces supported by US imperialism. Within Iran itself there are growing social tensions and some divisions within the regime. We need to be ready for major social upheavals within Iranian society in the coming period. <\/p>\n

Tunisia, Egypt and Libya<\/h2>\n

The working class and its allies remains the key to the situation in the Middle East. The North African and Arab revolutions \u2013 particularly in Tunisia and Egypt \u2013 showed their colossal strength and the potential political power which the working class and its allies have to change the situation. However, the fallout from the splintered and disturbed state of the world has enormously complicated the situation. If the workers\u2019 organisations had possessed a clear perspective and programme linked to a socialist vision and a leadership equal to the situation, things could have turned out entirely differently. Big opportunities have been lost because of the absence of the mass \u2018subjective factor\u2019. This was partly determined by the fact the working masses had been kept under the heel of dictatorial and authoritarian regimes in the preceding period. In Egypt, the independent trade unions played an important role in the struggle against the Mubarak regime. But they were not strong enough to impose themselves on the revolution in its early stages. Tunisia was an exception to the general pattern. The country which had seen the development of a powerful independent trade union movement, the UGTT, in the first period of the revolution when a big element of dual power existed could have played a decisive role in leading the revolution and, in the process, initiated a new mass party of the working class. This would have found a big echo throughout the region. Because of the absence of the subjective factor and the speed of events, it was not possible for the formation and crystallisation of a distinct class and socialist consciousness. In general, we have seen big but as yet unsuccessful movements of the working class. The Egyptian revolution presaged powerful movements of the working class in Europe, which has shaken the continent, particularly southern Europe \u2013 Greece, Spain, Portugal \u2013 to its foundations. This was clearly underlined in North Africa and the Middle East where the initial revolutionary wave saw US imperialism as an impotent bystander unable to intervene. Only with the ebb of the revolutionary wave \u2013 which in turn was contributed to by the weakness, virtual absence in fact, of a conscious revolutionary core able to win the masses and direct the movements \u2013 did reaction gradually take the reins of power back into their hands. They could not directly intervene in the first phase but sought a role for reaction through the back door by establishing a foothold in Bahrain, Libya, etc. We should never forget that they were helped ideologically \u2013 although ineffectually \u2013 in this task by alleged Trotskyists, including some in the USFI along with the poisonous little sect the AWL in Britain, who gave \u2018critical\u2019 support to imperialism\u2019s \u2018civilising\u2019 role in intervening in Libya in overthrowing Gaddafi. They justified this scandalous position of alleged \u2018Marxists\u2019 on the grounds that it was \u2018progressive\u2019, would prepare the way for democracy, independent workers\u2019 organisations, etc. One commentator wrote: \u201cIt was utterly predictable that military intervention would be a fiasco.\u201d We did not back reaction, unlike these groups who indirectly bear some responsibility for the disastrous situation where sectarian war, gangsters and rich Libyans lord it over the Libyan workers and peasants. Libya has never existed as a homogenous entity. It was a collection of \u201cfiercely autonomous, proud and unruly tribes\u201d, suspicious of centralised rule, which through the Ottoman Empire and the imperialist domination which followed was only loosely held together by Gaddafi through divide and rule, who kept \u201ca weather eye open, heaping privileges on some and prestige on others in order to consolidate alliances and plaster over any cracks that threatened to appear\u201d. Only a policy which looked towards the victorious independent mobilisation and movement of the masses was guaranteed to move Libya in a \u2018progressive\u2019 direction. Failure to base a struggle upon the working class and its allies in the poor peasantry, looking for a \u2018liberator\u2019 \u2013 and a foreign one at that \u2013 will ultimately lead to disaster and the complete discrediting of organisations which ascribe to this false policy, as we predicted at the time. However, the imprint of revolutionary events has left their mark on the masses which will be reflected in their political re-awakening in the next period. Egypt is one giant prison and torture chamber of an estimated 40,000 prisoners, with hundreds condemned to death. Sisi is himself a product of the \u2018security apparatus\u2019, which as we pointed out at the time of the revolution had a big economic stake under Mubarak and remained largely intact despite the upheavals. It is a dictatorial, authoritarian regime ratified by a \u2018fig leaf\u2019 of \u2018parliamentary elections\u2019, in which only a handful \u2013 an estimated 16% \u2013 turned out on the first day of voting. In the wake of Sisi\u2019s assumption of power, the stalwarts of the Mubarak regime have made a comeback: \u201c[Sisi] has restored the security state, uniformed and unreformed, constitutionally embedded the power of the army, ring-fenced its privileges and greatly expanded its business empire \u2014 helped by billions of dollars in aid from the Gulf [reactionary sheiks].\u201d Not for nothing did Marx insist that a precondition for the success of a revolution was \u201cthe breaking up of the old state machine\u201d, and the creation, amongst other things, of popular militias to defend the gains of the revolution. Particularly necessary is the removal and disarming of the officer caste which, in the main, defends the interests of the possessing classes, of which they were a component part in Egypt. None of this, of course, was undertaken because of the lack of consciousness on the part of the masses in the absence of a clear revolutionary leadership. Therefore, the military was free to plot, to use the autocratic and authoritarian measures of the Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi, then leant on the consequent mass discontent to usher in a military regime which has now led to Mubarak\u2019s release along with his cronies. This does not mean that the Egyptian masses and those throughout the region have suddenly gone to sleep. They are besieged by unemployment, the scramble for a piece of bread, but nevertheless are turning the events of the Egyptian revolution over in their minds; they will come back onto the stage at a certain time. Already, there is a stirring of the working class through strikes and a renewal of the unions. In Tunisia, a new generation of workers has joined the UGTT after the revolution. Work within the UGTT remains a priority for the forces of Marxism there. Strikes reached a high peak during the first part of 2015, but were partially cut across by the effects of two successive high-profile terrorist attacks. As a wave of regional private sector-based strikes on wages had begun to newly gather momentum in the autumn, a suicide bombing in central Tunis which killed 13 members of the Presidential guard at the end of November was used by the union bureaucracy to cancel all planned industrial actions. While the leadership of the UGTT has acted to try and collaborate with the ruling class. However, it is above all the weight of the organized union movement in Tunisia that has prevented a counter revolution of the same ferocity as in Egypt. The bourgeois counter-revolution in Tunisia is adopting a more \u2018democratic\u2019 attire. Yet the economic situation has dramatically worsened and the Tunisian government, led by the restorationist party Nidaa Tounes, has renewed attempts to attack the democratic gains from the 2010-11 revolution, notably by using the anti-terrorism card. A law of economic amnesty for corrupt businessmen linked to the old regime has also provoked mass street demonstrations, spearheaded by young people. The revolutionary \u2018moment\u2019 opened by the uprising five years ago has not been closed, and the ruling party is facing a deep internal crisis. New upsurges of the Tunisian masses are hence inevitable. <\/p>\n

Preparation for a new ups<\/h2>\n

urge lies in the development of theoretically sound organisations with a tested leadership throughout the region. The situation will develop in the future where a small force can have a colossal impact on mass movements. As in other situations where sectarian polarisation has wreaked havoc, at a certain stage the masses become disgusted and conclude that they have no alternative but to intervene in an attempt to unify themselves on a class basis. The same thing happened, not once but on a number of occasions, in Northern Ireland where our comrades played a key role in organising solidarity action which did, at least for a time, bridge the sectarian divide. Similarly, the Iraqi workers rose spontaneously in 2011 and showed their revulsion at the mass sectarian slaughter which was convulsing society by marching through the streets of Baghdad and other cities chanting \u201cWe are not Shia or Sunni but Iraqi workers.\u201d At the same time, they also protested at corruption, including the sell-off of Iraq\u2019s oil and demanded nationalisation of this vital national asset. They again protested in 2015 against corruption and power cuts. A similar process will develop in other countries in the region and we must be prepared programmatically, drawing on our experiences elsewhere, to intervene and attempt to cement class unity through independent unions and mass parties of the working class. The CWI does not have a quiescent or pacifist approach to the nightmare confronting the masses of the Middle East and North Africa. We reject pacifism and are prepared to defend \u2013 if necessary with arms in hand \u2013 the democratic rights of the working class as the Spanish, Chilean and other workers did when the ruling class attempted to take them away by force. We also recognise that all aspects of right-wing political Islam must be combated politically and over time by the masses in the region who will also recognise a similar need. It is therefore crucial that we systematically raise the need for independent political action by the working class. This should include, when the situation requires, the organisation of cross community\/religion class-based united workers defence forces to protect the working class from the state and the murderous threats made by the Taliban, Isis, Al Qa\u2019ida, etc. against working-class militants, including some of our own comrades and leaders in countries like Pakistan. <\/p>\n

Turkey<\/h2>\n

Turkey, in which we have a base now, has over the last period been turned upside down mostly through the fallout from the war in Syria with millions of refugees now ensconced in the country. This is a consequence of right- wing Islamist President Erdo\u011fan\u2019s open support for the Islamist opposition to Assad. Previously, he had been cautious, seemingly facing both ways, but when it looked as though the Syrian regime was about to be overthrown he became more supportive of the opposition. He imagined he would be allowed to bathe in the adulation of imperialism. Instead, the economy has worsened as Turkey\u2019s exports to its two biggest trading partners of Europe and Russia have contracted. The biggest terrorist incidents in the country\u2019s history have taken place recently, with hundreds of victims. Isis openly operates attacking demonstrations of the left and murdering left-wing activists. We have witnessed a growth in strikes and experienced two general elections in six months which have done nothing to resolve the political deadlock. When the governing party AKP lost its majority in the general election in June, this appeared to scupper Erdo\u011fan\u2019s plans to use the expected victory to enhance his position in the presidency which he then intended to run for. Instead that election saw the breakthrough of the pro-Kurdish HDP with 13% of the vote which prevented him achieving an outright majority. In the election in November, he partly compensated for this after a vicious scare campaign including the use of terror particularly in the Kurdish areas and against the left in general. However he and the AKP still got less than the 50% which would have allowed the launch of constitutional changes to the presidency and then, if he won that, to use it to bypass parliament and rule through bonapartist methods. There was disappointment on the left at the outcome of the results but Turkey is still moving leftwards. The 2013 events around Gezi Park shattered the \u2018strongman\u2019 image of Erdo\u011fan and his regime. The mass demonstrations showed he was not as \u2018all-powerful\u2019 as he imagined. That mood and movement has not gone to sleep. As social conditions deteriorate under the devastating impact of the regional war \u2013 together with the inflaming of the Kurdish question \u2013 and the worsening general world economic situation, this will severely impact on Turkey as on other \u2018emerging\u2019 countries. This in turn will lead to new movements of the Turkish workers and youth and provide us with favourable opportunities to build. <\/p>\n

Israel\/Palestine<\/h2>\n

Although not on the same scale as the horrors of Syria the ongoing conflict in Israel\/Palestine has been recently inflamed, particularly in seemingly random clashes which have taken place in Jerusalem. Some of the attacks on Jews and Palestinians have been quite gruesome and horrific. The most accurate picture of what is happening is to be found in our articles and press and not in the bourgeois media, whose reporters write at arm\u2019s length and without a real feel or understanding of the situation on the ground. Daily stabbings and killings saw in October 58 Palestinians and 10 Israelis killed with the injured running into thousands. In one horrific incident, an Eritrean asylum seeker was first shot and then lynched, with two of the suspects identified as prison service officers! As comrades commented: \u201cThe mob, particularly the two prison officers, implemented the new semi-official policy: execution without trial for every (non-Jewish) suspect of terrorism.\u201d Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has called this arrogantly: \u2018management of the conflict\u2019 but almost three quarters of Israelis in polls have expressed discontent with the way that he has dealt with the \u2018terror wave\u2019 and his complete failure to calm the situation. On the other hand, almost the same percentage doesn\u2019t believe that the \u2018centre-left\u2019 \u2013 in reality the right wing Labour Party \u2013 would do any better. They have supported the catastrophic policies: the closure of East Jerusalem neighbourhoods, greater latitude to fire at stone throwers and heavier prison sentences. Support for the even more right-wing parties and figures like Lieberman is growing but not by much. While our comrades recognise that there is a growth amongst the Israeli-Jewish population of nationalism, there is a layer drawing the conclusion that the establishment parties cannot find a way out. Nor is a military solution likely to work in the long term, with even the chief of staff admitting: \u201cThere\u2019s no clear military solution to this kind of challenge.\u201d Consequently, our comrades have tried to turn those workers and youth that we can reach toward united mass action: \u201cJoint struggle between Jews and Arabs and against escalation of the conflict or indiscriminate attacks on civilians through the policies of the government\u201d. This is not a new demand but it needs to be restated in the dangerously polarised situation of Israel\/Palestine. Moreover, it is not just the Israeli right who stoke up tension but also right wing Islamist forces, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad which also promote terrorism against Jews. The outlawing of a number of Islamist organisations \u2013 most of whose activities have been to shout at Jewish visitors to the Temple Mount \u2013 fuelled the tension and wider conflict between the different religious communities. One of the consequences is increased repression and action against Palestinian minors from poor families, who face \u2018official permits\u2019 to shoot them and jail them more easily! This means that \u201cthe strongest military power in the region (the Israeli army) is sending armed soldiers to fight kids\u201d. Despite all the difficulties, it still remains necessary for us to raise the question of the workers and poor in Israel from the different national groups having clear common interests in opposing the escalation of the conflict and posing workers\u2019 unity. The very clear programme of our Israeli\/Palestinian organisation shows the way forward: \u201cEstablish two capitals in Jerusalem, securing welfare, equal national and Jerusalem, securing welfare, equal national and religious rights\u2026 Down with the dictatorship of the occupation and the settlements in Palestinian territories. End the siege of Gaza! Establishment of an independent and equal democratic Palestinian state alongside a democratic and socialist Israel\u201d in a democratic and socialist confederation of the region. <\/p>\n

EUROPE<\/h2>\n

The euro crisis which erupted in Greece in the last five years has confirmed the analysis of the CWI. Keeping Greece temporarily in the eurozone has not resolved this crisis and it will re-erupt again either in Greece or other countries such as Italy, Spain or Portugal. At a certain stage, this will lead to the break-up of the eurozone in its current form. At the same time there has been a dramatic increase in national tensions as a result of this crisis and also the refugee crisis. These and the threat of \u2018Brexit\u2019 (British withdrawal from the EU) could develop and result in a reconfiguration of the EU itself in its\u2019 current form. Europe remains the most important continent for the CWI, given our political weight there. However, our European sections could be caught up and overtaken by our co-thinkers in the US. We would be delighted if this was to happen, given the colossal impact of events in the US on the world. Nevertheless, the potential for significant growth for our sections in Europe in the next period is also rooted in the enduring economic, social and political crisis. <\/p>\n

Greece<\/h2>\n

The events of Greece indicated the shaky nature of the \u2019European Union\u2019. \u2019Grexit\u2019 is not entirely off the table. Events could push Greece to the edge once more. The September general election was marked by a big abstention rate, around 45% of the electorate, which is much higher than previously when 25-30% did not vote. It saw workers refuse to buy papers or even take leaflets during the election. This indicated the extreme disillusionment, to say the least, of the masses with all parties, resulting in all of them losing votes. For instance, Syriza saw its percentage of the vote fall only marginally, but actually lost 320,000 votes compared to the previous election in January 2015 while New Democracy, the right-wing former governing party got 200,000 less. Pasok, which until January 2015 was still a coalition partner in the government, was beaten by the fascist Golden Dawn! The Communist Party (KKE) with its organic sectarian, ultra-leftism, kept its percentage of the vote, but also lost votes in a period when an established left party with a correct programme and perspectives should have made substantial gains. The left split from Syriza, Popular Unity, failed to reach the 3% threshold needed to enter parliament and therefore is without parliamentary representation, with a certain political fallout from their ranks likely to follow. It behaved in an ultimatist and arrogant manner in the initial period of the pre-election negotiations with the rest of the left outside their ranks. Although formally against austerity, Popular Unity failed to put forward a credible socialist programme to end the deep crisis and shifted to the right during the election campaign. They identified themselves solely with the transition to a national currency, refusing to make any mention of a socialist programme or even a mild anticapitalist one. Our comrades in Greece have therefore faced a quite difficult conjuncture. We have essentially maintained our forces intact when the vast majority of the left faced numerous divisions and splits, but have not been able to grow substantially in a situation marked by mass disappointment and disillusionment amongst the masses. We have, however, made significant advances and conquered new ground in the local communities and the mass movement, in view of the future battles which sooner or later will take place. There is an intense questioning, political ferment amongst a minority of politically advanced youth and workers on the left. Elements of Latin America have existed in Greece for some time, particularly reflected by the fracturing of the left into many groups. This in turn is a product of the different tempo, scale and serious test of events, which have developed much more rapidly in Latin America in the past and now in Greece and southern Europe compared to Northern Europe, the US, etc. Organisations are tested in the fire of events and are often found wanting, unable to measure up politically to the situation, resulting in splits. This imposes for us in this concrete situation difficult and \u2019unusual\u2019 tactics, which are not required at this stage where it is a question of two or three Trotskyist organisations competing for influence in the youth and workers\u2019 movement. Where the ground is cluttered \u2013 with an alphabet soup of groups \u2013 it is incumbent on us to help to clear the ground and simplify the task for the working class by seeking maximum collaboration and unity on a principled basis. Even in Britain we have pursued such tactics through TUSC, not just collaborating with the rail union RMT but also with the other sizeable left group, the SWP. Without in any way dropping our Marxist criticism of these groups, they can be accompanied with strenuous efforts to maximise common work: a united front on a limited basis on an agreed programme, etc. This could ultimately lead to the emergence of a coherent left. Old alliances are falling apart and new realignments are taking their place, with some promising prospects in Greece. The aftermath of defeats has often led to splits and divisions. But the opposite process can also develop by increased collaboration and the strengthening of the forces of the left, which can in turn prepare for a new upsurge in the movement. Other sections of the International may be compelled in time to adopt some of the approach and tactics \u2013 adapted to the concrete situation in each country \u2013 which our Greek section is implementing now. Of course, the political cycle will be different in each country, even between the different countries of southern Europe. In Greece, it is not entirely excluded, though extremely remote, that Tsipras, despite his grovelling retreats, if he is pushed too far \u2013 for instance on the EU\u2019s mean and cruel insistence of forced evictions of workers who cannot pay their rent \u2013 could be pushed into opposing the troika and set in process a chain of events that may result in Greece being pushed out of the eurozone. On the other hand, it is quite probable that his government, which has already lost two MPs in the first two months of its second term, will end up in crisis and some kind of coalition government with parties of the establishment like PASOK, the River or the Centre Union. The crisis inside SYRIZA has not completed its cycle. New splits, smaller or bigger are still on the agenda. <\/p>\n

Spain<\/h2>\n

Spain, approaching its general election on 20 December, has already had a dress rehearsal in the local and regional elections earlier in the year. The government experienced a severe defeat losing power in many of its big-city strongholds while at the same time losing overall domination in the regions. The extent of their defeat was masked by their reliance on the support of Ciudadanos, the \u2018new\u2019 right-wing populist party, which was created as a \u2018safety net\u2019 for voters moving away from the PP, the governing party, who might otherwise have decamped to Podemos. This was nevertheless a decisive rejection of the government\u2019s claim to have presided over a spectacular economic recovery. The Spanish ruling class\u2019s programme of savage austerity was repudiated in these elections. Unemployment has dropped to just over 20% from almost 24%, still one of the highest in the world and second only to Greece in Europe! Just under 5 million Spaniards are still unemployed. Their desperation was summed up by a man who offered to pay employers \u20ac5,000 to just give his unemployed son a start with a job! Then there is the relentless daily enforcement of evictions and resistance to this, which has provoked charges by the bourgeois media of \u2018terrorism\u2019! Some well-known left radical figures that have supported such militant action and some leading the resistance were subsequently elected as mayors in the two major cities of Madrid and Barcelona. Podemos, riding on the success of Syriza in Greece, at one stage rose to over 20% in opinion polls and was seen as a threat to the established parties. Now, it has fallen back from this high point. This reflects its leadership\u2019s failure to formulate a clear class programme \u2013 substituting the concept \u2018caste\u2019 in place of class \u2013 with a top-down organisational approach which dissipates the voice of its members and concentrates real power in the hands of the leadership, with the ranks pushed into powerless \u2018networks\u2019. It has also moved steadily to the right over the last period. The national question, particularly in Catalonia but also to a lesser extent immediately in the Basque country, has entered a new and explosive phase. The Catalan parliament has voted for a resolution calling for \u201cthe beginning of a process of the creation of an independent Catalan state in the form of a Republic\u201d. This is seen as a potential step towards a unilateral declaration of independence and is being virulently opposed by the parties of the Spanish state, the PP and the \u2018socialist\u2019 PSOE. In the 1930s, the issue was posed starkly with much greater overall support for separation than there is today. Mass immigration from the south of Spain, particularly from Andaluc\u00eda, took place under the Franco regime and continued after this, which changed the situation. The \u2018plebiscite\u2019 elections on 27 September showed that society is almost split down the middle on the question of independence. We adhere to the general principle of the right of self-determination. We therefore stand for the democratic right of the peoples of Catalonia to decide their own fate through a referendum. At this stage, we would give a critical support to a \u2018Yes\u2019 vote in an \u2018independence\u2019 referendum, which many would see as a chance to escape Madrid\u2019s austerity. At the same time, because of the polarisation that is evident in the polls with roughly half supporting independence and half opposed, the workers\u2019 movement has to clearly intervene in the debate, clearly defending minority rights within an independent Catalonia. But we will not reinforce nationalist illusions that a capitalist independent Catalonia could exist or succeed without linking up with the peoples of the Spanish state and the Iberian Peninsula as a whole in a democratic socialist confederation. It is not likely that this issue will be voted on immediately. Rajoy could make this an issue in the upcoming general election, by invoking the threat which it poses to \u2018Spanish unity\u2019 and the benefits which allegedly flow from \u2018all the peoples of Spain\u2019 living and cooperating together. This message could find an echo in Catalonia and throughout Spain unless it is effectively answered by the radical left. However, Podemos has, to say the least, an ambivalent position on the national question, similar to Corbyn\u2019s position on Scotland, giving the impression of being sympathetic but not speaking out clearly and appearing to be dodging the issue. We are for the building of a united movement which, on a socialist basis will allow all the peoples of the Spanish state and Iberian Peninsula to decide upon their own shared future. If Rajoy wins again and takes power in a coalition, then the position of the government will be to implacably oppose a referendum. This would deny the legitimate democratic rights of the Catalan people, and also the Basques and others who wish to pursue their claims for autonomy or separation. However, any new government following the general elections will be under huge pressure to put forward a solution to the crisis in Catalonia, including a possible reform of Spain\u2019s constitution to provide for further recognition and financial powers for Catalonia. The existing right-wing leadership of the independence movement \u2013 which has never really been pro-independence – would willingly accept such a compromise. However, this would be unlikely to fully stem the tide of the mass movement, which is split along class lines and between right and left. The national question is being resurrected, as we have explained in a number of documents of the CWI, throughout Europe and the world. We must train our cadres to be able to respond to the emergence of \u2018old\u2019 national questions but also of entirely new situations that flow from the stagnation and decline of capitalism in the modern era. The last word has not yet been spoken on Podemos. It is possible that, despite its leadership, under the impact of a further deepening of the crisis and the possible re-election of some kind of right-wing coalition government, it will undergo further growth and pressure from below for opening up and democratising its structures. The new generation of young people and workers in Spain and everywhere are very different to previous generations: more open and mistrustful of bureaucratic centralised leadership. They demand open and inclusive forms of organisation, including the idea of alliances or federations of different organisations coming together in one party. This is not fundamentally different, it is true, than what was once considered the norm, in the formative stages of the labour movement before a crystallised bureaucratic layer had been able to develop. <\/p>\n

Portugal<\/h2>\n

Portugal shows how the pressure of the working class can be exerted even on the most unreconstructed bureaucratic parties\u2019 leaderships \u2013 like the Portuguese CP \u2013 when the needs of a situation are pressing. After the last general election, none of the \u2018old\u2019 parties \u2013the ex-social democrats (PSP) or the previous right wing coalition \u2013 could rule alone. The government coalition failed abysmally to get majority support winning just under 37% of the votes but with an abstention rate of a colossal 43%. This meant that only a very small minority of the population voted for them. As comrades explained: \u201cDuring the campaign, they tried to hide the faces of the government leaders \u2013 the executioners who dragged working people to a level of exploitation not seen since before the 25 April revolution in 1974.\u201d The hysteria of right-wing commentators is a measure of the extreme crisis Portugal has been thrown into by these events. It has become very clear to the masses that all these parties \u2013 including the right wing of the so-called Socialist Party \u2013 are parties of rotten capitalism, of austerity. The president scandalously intervened after the results of the election to try and hand power back to the representative of the right and previous prime minster, Passos Coelho, launching at the same time a tirade against the left. The inclusion of the Left Bloc and the Communist Party \u2013 even by giving critical support to a Socialist Party-led government \u2013 shows the fear of the Portuguese and European ruling class to any involvement or pressure exerted by the workers\u2019 organisations. Cooperation of the Left Bloc and the PCP, if it is to be principled, can only be on an issue-by-issue basis with negotiations conducted publicly \u2013 before the court of opinion of the workers\u2019 movement and with the Portuguese masses being able to express their views openly. Moreover, as our comrades have pointed out, it is through the mass mobilisation of the Portuguese workers that real pressure needs to be exerted to ensure that the demands of the workers are implemented. Portugal has entered a period of renewed struggle and our predominantly youthful forces can play an important, indeed a crucial role in winning and organising the new generation, by drawing on the revolutionary history of the Portuguese working class and the role of the CWI in intervening in the country and the movement in the Iberian Peninsula as a whole. <\/p>\n

Britain<\/h2>\n

The present Tory government in Britain will come under severe pressure on the EU referendum that must be held by the end of 2017. The decisive sections of the British bourgeois have come out overwhelmingly for remaining \u2018In\u2019. What is involved are the prestige and economic interests of British imperialism, which have already diminished dramatically. They are terrified of being locked out of the decision making process of the EU. This in turn could see China and the US bypassing Britain as an economic launching pad \u2013 which it is now \u2013 into the EU. Cameron has recently invested a great deal of political capital in courting the Chinese government, persuading them that Britain is a fruitful field of investment. This would all be put in jeopardy if the \u2018No\u2019 camp won. Additionally, the problem for Cameron is that he has a significant section of his own party \u2013 the \u2018eurosceptics\u2019 \u2013 who are opposed to his proposals to keep Britain in the EU. It is not excluded that the Tory party could split and a new general election be called because on this issue the government could lose its majority in the House of Commons although the majority of Labour MPs would probably back Cameron on this issue. Crucial decisions on the direction of British and European capitalism are posed by this. Accordingly they will use all the propaganda weapons at their disposal to try and ensure a \u2018Yes\u2019 vote. However, it is not guaranteed that they will be successful in getting the desired result. The referendum is increasingly seen as providing an opportunity for the working class to strike a blow against Cameron and the Tory government by mobilising and voting \u2018No\u2019. We have come out for a \u2018No\u2019 vote but have linked this to a class and internationalist position: \u2018No to a capitalist EU, Yes to a socialist Europe.\u2019 <\/p>\n

Germany<\/h2>\n

The eurozone as a whole has not fully escaped from the ravages of the 2007-08 crisis. Some of the key countries \u2013 France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, quite apart from Greece, are mired in depression and still have levels of mass unemployment. Britain and Germany have seemingly escaped from the worst effects of the crisis but this is an illusion. Britain has created hundreds of thousands of low paid, insecure \u2018throwaway jobs\u2019. Germany has one of the largest sectors of the labour force of Europe which is part-time, low paid, etc. Now the storm clouds of a new economic downturn are gathering. This is why Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, has already floated the possibility of him taking measures to boost the European \u2018recovery\u2019. He was prompted to do this by what the Financial Times described as \u201cthe dire state of the eurozone economy\u201d. This was highlighted by the drop of 0.3% in industrial production in September 2015 compared to the previous month. Billions are swilling around in the world economy arising from ECB measures of quantitative easing, previously estimated at \u20ac1.1 trillion. But when faced with another serious crisis, symbolised by very low inflation, deflation in other words, the central banks will not hesitate to intervene to prop up the \u2018markets\u2019. Germany is the most important country in Europe, both from the point of view of the bourgeois of the continent and also from the standpoint of the working class. It has in the last year faced massive upheavals. The biggest number of strikes for a considerable period \u2013 only commented on internationally by our comrades \u2013 has taken place. Some of these strikes have been bitter and protracted and not all resulted in success, as with the postal workers. However, some have resulted in victory such as the train drivers and the kindergarten strikes. At the same time, there was a massive demonstration of 250,000 against the so-called free-trade agreement Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), in which our comrades reported there was a keen interest in socialist ideas. The other issue which is dominant in German politics is of course the refugee crisis. Upwards of a million refugees, German Chancellor Merkel admits, will be allowed into Germany. This is partly because she been unable to stop the human flood and also because temporary \u2018open borders\u2019 have the agreement of the more farsighted German bourgeois. They have been concerned for some time about the demographic pattern in Germany, where the population is getting older. On present trends, the country will in the future be smaller than the number of people expected to live in Britain. Therefore making a \u2018virtue out of necessity\u2019 \u2013 and at the same time burnishing her \u2018liberal\u2019 image, that was not evident over Greece \u2013 Merkel kills two birds with one stone by presenting her chancellorship as a magnanimous one. But the enormously enthusiastic and welcoming reaction of the German workers \u2013 particularly of the youth \u2013 is beginning to give away to doubts and opposition because of the huge strain on resources which a sudden mass influx of people means, even to a \u2018rich\u2019 country like Germany. The mood on this issue is largely dependent upon how the refugee crisis impacts on different countries. In those in which the refugees are just \u2018passing through\u2019 and don\u2019t intend to take up permanent residence \u2013 Greece, some of the countries of the Balkans, Austria, etc. \u2013 our comrades have been involved in a general welcoming approach, engaging in solidarity actions, providing shelter, clothes, food, etc. Of course in Germany and elsewhere we also participate in such activity where we can. But the issue is posed somewhat differently where we defend asylum seekers and others, at the same time raising transitional demands about the intervention of the labour movement in allowing transparent and democratic intervention and judgement on immigration cases, the right to stay, etc. <\/p>\n

Finland<\/h2>\n

The general strike in September in Finland also indicated that an element of Greece and Spain is coming to Northern Europe. Plans to attack the trade unions were suspended after almost 30,000 people gathered in Helsinki to demonstrate with extensive strikes which stopped all transport and much of heavy industry. This was accompanied by student occupations with the youth showing a sure instinct in lining up behind the working class. Our comrades intervened in these events, both from Sweden and Finland, raising the demand that the strike must be continued with more decisive action. <\/p>\n

Belgium<\/h2>\n

Belgium has also faced upheavals and not just following the fallout from the Paris terrorist attacks. The Belgian workers are faced with an avalanche of attacks by the right-wing government, which provoked anger and opposition from the workers: \u201cNo Thatcher here\u201d. In autumn 2014 it provoked a colossal elemental movement \u2013 including a quarter of a million strong national demonstration of opposition to the attacks of the government. Yet the government was able to re-establish its equilibrium because the trade union leaders were not prepared to escalate the action. This is a pattern that we have seen elsewhere, including in Britain in the period from 2010 to the 2015 general election. Essentially, the trade union leaders are afraid of their own potential power with even the best of them seeking to rein in movements and divert them onto the electoral plane. Belgium is a crucial arena for the CWI, given the specific weight of the industrial working class together with the roots that we have built in the country. We are presently \u2018competing\u2019 with the ex-Maoist PTB. They have attained a certain electoral position \u2013 9% in opinion polls \u2013 but on the basis of discarding Maoist ultra-leftism and shifting sharply towards a reformist position. History showed, said Marx, that a party can be raised up, particularly when the masses are searching for a left alternative, and political deficiencies are not immediately obvious. However, once reaching a certain \u2018popularity\u2019 these parties can be put to the test, be undermined and in the process tend to disintegrate. It is the test of events, combined with severe Marxist criticism of all opposing political trends, which is crucial for all those who wish to attain leadership in the workers\u2019 movement. Belgium has always played a key role because of its central position in relation to other countries. The other side of Belgium has been displayed over the recent terrorist incidents. The country was the jumping-off point for the jihadis who initiated the Paris massacre. We have a long and fruitful experience in maintaining in the country the banner of genuine Marxism\/Trotskyism, but a new favourable chapter can open up which will provide opportunities for the CWI to build a powerful position both in Flanders and in French-speaking Wallonia in the next period. <\/p>\n